Rental pro forma
Every line from gross potential rent to net operating income is on screen and every one is editable. Rent and expenses grow at separate rates, the replacement reserve is a field rather than an omission, and the exit is a reversion with a cost of sale rather than a second appraisal. When the NOI is right, hand it to the debt tool.
Assumptions
Look up an address
Property and basis
Income, year one
Operating expenses, year one
Hold and growth
Valuation and exit
A buyer at the end of the hold owns the years after it, so the forward figure is what they underwrite. The difference is one year of NOI growth on the whole reversion.
Debt
Model
- Negative leverage. The going-in cap rate of 6.59% is 80 basis points below the loan constant of 7.39% once interest only ends, so each borrowed dollar costs more in debt service than it earns in NOI and the debt lowers cash on cash.
Size the debt
Year one NOI of $988,540, a lending value of $15,000,000 (the lower of price and value at the market cap rate), a basis of $15,300,000 and NOI growth of 3.37% a year, plus your rate, amortisation, interest only period and loan to value. The growth rate is the one NOI actually compounded at, not the rent growth assumption, because expenses grow at their own rate.
Open in debt sizing →Build
| Gross potential rent | $1,800,000 |
|---|---|
| Less: vacancy | ($90,000) |
| Less: credit loss | ($18,000) |
| Plus: other income | $90,000 |
| Effective gross income$1,800,000 - $90,000 - $18,000 + $90,000 = $1,782,000 | $1,782,000 |
| Less: operating expenses | ($710,000) |
| Less: management fee | ($53,460) |
| Less: replacement reservereserve per unit x units, escalated with expenses | ($30,000) |
| Net operating income$1,782,000 - $710,000 - $53,460 - $30,000 = $988,540 | $988,540 |
| Operating expense ratiototal operating expenses / $1,782,000 = 44.53% | 44.53% |
| Purchase price | $15,000,000 |
| Plus: acquisition costs | $300,000 |
| Total basis$15,000,000 + $300,000 = $15,300,000 | $15,300,000 |
| Going-in cap rate$988,540 / $15,000,000 = 6.59% | 6.59% |
| Value at market cap rateyear 1 NOI capitalised at the market cap rate | $15,208,308 |
| Price per unit | $150,000 |
| Price per square foot | $176.47 |
| Loan at close | $9,000,000 |
| Equity at close$15,300,000 - $9,000,000 = $6,300,000 | $6,300,000 |
| Year 1 debt service | $562,500 |
| Year 1 cash flow after debt service | $426,040 |
| Cash on cash$426,040 / $6,300,000 = 6.76% | 6.76% |
| Cash on cash, first amortising yearthat year's cash flow after debt service / $6,300,000 = 6.21% | 6.21% |
| Monthly cash flow, year 1$426,040 / 12 = $35,503 | $35,503 |
| Monthly rent to price$1,800,000 / 12 / $15,000,000 = 1.00% | 1.00% |
| Break-even occupancy(total operating expenses + debt service) / ($1,800,000 + $90,000) = 71.74% | 71.74% |
| Reversion NOI | $1,128,665 |
| Gross sale pricereversion NOI capitalised at the exit cap rate | $16,720,970 |
| Implied price growth($16,720,970 / $15,000,000) ^ (1 / hold) - 1 = 2.20% | 2.20% |
| Less: cost of sale | ($334,419) |
| Net sale proceeds$16,720,970 - $334,419 = $16,386,550 | $16,386,550 |
| Less: loan balance at exit | ($8,662,828) |
| Net equity proceeds$16,386,550 - $8,662,828 = $7,723,722 | $7,723,722 |
| Unlevered IRR | 8.34% |
| Levered IRR | 10.84% |
| Equity multiple | 1.57x |
Operating table
| Line item | Y1 | Y2 | Y3 | Y4 | Y5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net operating income build | |||||
| Gross potential rent | $1,800,000 | $1,854,000 | $1,909,620 | $1,966,909 | $2,025,916 |
| Less: vacancy | ($90,000) | ($92,700) | ($95,481) | ($98,345) | ($101,296) |
| Less: credit loss | ($18,000) | ($18,540) | ($19,096) | ($19,669) | ($20,259) |
| Plus: other income | $90,000 | $92,700 | $95,481 | $98,345 | $101,296 |
| Effective gross incomeWorking, Y1: $1,800,000 - $90,000 - $18,000 + $90,000 = $1,782,000 | $1,782,000 | $1,835,460 | $1,890,524 | $1,947,240 | $2,005,657 |
| Less: real estate taxes | ($210,000) | ($215,250) | ($220,631) | ($226,147) | ($231,801) |
| Less: insurance | ($65,000) | ($66,625) | ($68,291) | ($69,998) | ($71,748) |
| Less: utilities | ($95,000) | ($97,375) | ($99,809) | ($102,305) | ($104,862) |
| Less: repairs and maintenance | ($120,000) | ($123,000) | ($126,075) | ($129,227) | ($132,458) |
| Less: payroll and contract services | ($145,000) | ($148,625) | ($152,341) | ($156,149) | ($160,053) |
| Less: administrative and marketing | ($55,000) | ($56,375) | ($57,784) | ($59,229) | ($60,710) |
| Less: other operating expenses | ($20,000) | ($20,500) | ($21,013) | ($21,538) | ($22,076) |
| Less: management fee | ($53,460) | ($55,064) | ($56,716) | ($58,417) | ($60,170) |
| Less: replacement reserve | ($30,000) | ($30,750) | ($31,519) | ($32,307) | ($33,114) |
| Less: total operating expenses | ($793,460) | ($813,564) | ($834,178) | ($855,316) | ($876,991) |
| Net operating incomeWorking, Y1: $1,782,000 - $793,460 = $988,540 | $988,540 | $1,021,896 | $1,056,346 | $1,091,923 | $1,128,665 |
| Operating expense ratio | 44.53% | 44.32% | 44.12% | 43.92% | 43.73% |
| Less: debt service | ($562,500) | ($562,500) | ($664,975) | ($664,975) | ($664,975) |
| Cash flow after debt serviceWorking, Y1: $988,540 - $562,500 = $426,040 | $426,040 | $459,396 | $391,371 | $426,949 | $463,691 |
| DSCR | 1.76x | 1.82x | 1.59x | 1.64x | 1.70x |
| Loan balance | $9,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $8,894,538 | $8,782,293 | $8,662,828 |
Sensitivity
| Rent growth downExit cap rate across | 6.25% | 6.50% | 6.75% | 7.00% | 7.25% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00% | 10.68% | 9.07% | 7.49% | 5.93% | 4.38% |
| 2.50% | 12.31% | 10.74% | 9.20% | 7.69% | 6.19% |
| 3.00% | 13.88% | 12.34% | 10.84% base case | 9.37% | 7.91% |
| 3.50% | 15.39% | 13.89% | 12.42% | 10.98% | 9.56% |
| 4.00% | 16.85% | 15.37% | 13.93% | 12.53% | 11.14% |
Cells are the levered IRR over the hold.